Black Friday is 34 days out: what to buy now, what to wait for

Black Friday is Friday, November 27, and Cyber Monday is November 30. That's 34 days away, but the sales don't wait that long anymore. Lowe's and Home Depot start their holiday deals this Thursday, October 29, and Target kicks off a daily deal on November 1.

So the real question isn't when is Black Friday. It's should I buy this now, or will it be cheaper in a month? Here's how we'd think about it.

What's announced so far

• Lowe's: Black Friday deals start Oct 29 and run for four weeks. "12 Days of Deals" starts Nov 16. MyLowe's Rewards members get extra discounts.
• Home Depot: holiday savings start Oct 29.
• Target: a new Deal of the Day every day from Nov 1 to Dec 24, plus an early Black Friday sale Nov 5–7.
• Walmart, Best Buy, Amazon and Costco haven't posted 2026 dates yet. Last year Amazon's Black Friday Week and Best Buy's sale both started Nov 20, a week early. We'll update our Black Friday calendar the day they announce.

Usually worth waiting for

Adobe tracks online prices at the biggest US stores. Its 2026 forecast says these categories tend to hit their best prices on Black Friday: TVs, toys, clothes, appliances and furniture. Electronics and computers tend to be cheapest on Cyber Monday.

Last year's biggest average online discounts were electronics (31% off), toys (28%), clothes (25%), computers (23%) and TVs (22%). If something on your list is in one of those groups and it's only 10–15% off today, waiting is a reasonable bet. Dale's rule: a "sale" that matches last year's normal price isn't a sale.

One honest caveat: these are averages. Popular items sometimes sell out, and some early deals are the same price you'll see on Black Friday. Nobody can promise a lower price later, us included.

Fine to buy now

• Things you need this week. Paying a few dollars more beats going without.
• Deals already at or near their low. If the price is already at the left end of our price scale, there isn't much room to drop.
• Tools and home improvement. Lowe's and Home Depot are front-loading their deals this year, so the early weeks are a real sale, not a preview.
• Halloween clearance. Holiday decor is on its way out the door, which is when prices fall.

A few deals we checked this week

Prices were right when we checked on Oct 24. They change fast, so tap through to see today's price.

• Apple AirPods Pro 3 at Target for $199.99. Apple's newest AirPods Pro, with stronger noise cancellation and a fit that stays put through workouts. $50 off is a real discount on one of the most-asked-for gifts of the year. Headphones sometimes dip again on Cyber Monday, so if you can wait, set an alert.
• Insignia 70-inch 4K Fire TV at Best Buy for $299.99. That's about $4.30 per inch for a 70-inch 4K screen with Fire TV built in, and $200 below Best Buy's regular price. TVs also drop on Black Friday, so compare before you buy, but this is already a big screen at a small price.
• Cuisinart 7-in-1 Air Fryer Toaster Oven at Target for $139.99. $90 off a countertop oven that air-fries, toasts, bakes and broils, so it can replace two appliances and free up counter space.
• LEGO Technic Corvette Stingray at Kohl's for $35.99. 40% off a 732-piece build for car fans. Toys usually hit their best prices on Black Friday, and this one is already there.
• Kobalt 18-Piece Magnetic Screwdriver Set at Lowe's for $19.98. $13 off, with 4.7 stars from 419 Lowe's reviews. An easy stocking stuffer for whoever does the fixing at your house.

Building a list instead? Start with gifts under $25 and gifts under $50.

Three habits that save the most

1. Make your list now, buy later. Knowing what you want is what keeps you from impulse "deals" on the day.
2. Check the price history, not the percent off. A "was" price can be anything a store wants. Paste any product link into Check a Deal and we'll tell you what we know.
3. Know the return window. Many stores extend holiday returns, so buying early can be low risk. Check the policy before you check out.

The Dudes' bottom line

Dex says the deals have already started. Dale says most of the biggest drops still come Thanksgiving week. They're both right. Buy what you need and what's already at its low. For TVs, toys and clothes, write it down and wait. We'll be checking prices every day between now and then.